Speaker Insists Texas House Majority Safe
after Senate Boss Says it May Be in Danger

Capitol Inside
April 8, 2026

With the threat of a destructive blue wave growing considerably over the course of the Easter weekend, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick acknowledged on Wednesday that Republicans could be at risk of losing their majority in the Texas House if they fail to unite for the midterm election this fall.

"We're going to have a tough time holding the Texas House," the powerful Texas Senate leader warned at the Texas Public Policy Foundation's annual conference in Austin.

Patrick's candid assessment of the political climate less than seven months before the vote marked the first time that one of the Texas Legislature's top leaders has conceded that two dozen years of GOP control in the lower chamber could be in peril at the polls in November. But the lieutenant governor's words of caution prompted an immediate rebuke from House Speaker Dustin Burrows on social media.

"We will not lose the Texas House," the first-term speaker promised in a post on X. "We will fight to retain every Republican seat. I look forward to the fall campaign where we get to talk about Texas’prosperity under Republican leadership; and, I trust the voters of Texas to continue to vote for conservative government up and down the ballot!"

Patrick's admonishment to conservatives who've long revered him provided U.S. Senator John Cornyn - inadvertently perhaps - a springboard for another pitch on the importance of Republican voters backing him over Attorney General Ken Paxton in a spring runoff in a fight that's raised the bar on bloodbaths in the Lone Star State.

Cornyn's communications director - Matt Mackowiak - seized on the opportunity with a social media post that claimed that the Texas House majority for the GOP would only be in jeopardy if Paxton emerged as the winner in overtime in the U.S. Senate contest here. "Not with @JohnCornyn as the nominee," Mackowiak said on the prospects for the House changing hands next year. "But it will be very hard with an albatross like as the nominee."

The Democrats would have to flip at least 14 Texas House seats to take the chamber back in the general election on November 3. Cornyn has warned repeatedly about the potential for a down-ballot disaster for the GOP in the fall if Paxton is the nominee for the U.S. Senate. But polls have shown the Democratic nominee for the Senate - State Rep. James Talarico of Austin - running even with the AG and the longtime Senate incumbent despite the Cornyn camp's claims on Paxton as baggage. .

Democrats flipped 12 Texas House districts in 2018 when they picked up two state Senate districts and two more in the state's congressional delegation on the strength of a major blue wave. While the conditions now appear considerably worse for the GOP than they did at this point in Trump's first term, the Capitol Inside crystal ball's forecast for the fall has the Democrats picking up six to eight Texas House seats in an arena where GOP gerrymandering in 2021 effectively eliminated the rest of the lower-hanging fruit. But that projection could rise substantially if President Donald Trump's rock-bottom approval marks fail to rebound dramatically at some point soon.

A potential blue wave could do more harm to Republicans in statewide races here in Texas where Democrats haven't won at that level in 32 years. Governor Greg Abbott and Patrick could find re-election bids in trouble if Talarico flips the Senate seat that's crowning the ballot here this year. Statewide seats could fall like dominos if the GOP nominee in the Senate fight falls.

has sought to use the potential for a Democratic surge for fundraising purposes. But Abbott has sent mixed messages - vowing last fall to turn Harris County red in the general election with a plan that's targeting several seats that are represented by Democrats in the Houston area.

GOP Speaker Dustin Burrows hadn't appeared concerned about the threat of Democrats reclaiming the majority in a move they would follow up by giving him the boot from the dais when the regular session convenes in January so they could elect one of their own to the post. Burrows has invested more political capital in the past two weeks into a special committee probe on the annexation of counties in eastern New Mexico than the circling of wagons in anticipation of a blue wave that could wash the gavel back into the hands of Democrats.

But Patrick's admonishment clearly got the speaker's attention based on the speed and claims in his response to the warning. Abbott - while using the threat of a blue wave for fundraising purposes - hadn't shown any signs of consternation about the GOP's odds on the legislative battlefield. Abbott - in sharp contrast - had expected for the GOP to pick up several seats he vowed to target in the Houston area with an effort that he unveiled last fall with a plan aimed at turning Harris County red in 2026.

Patrick remained on the sidelines in the U.S. Senate overtime clash despite pleas for unity in its wake that he issued at the TPPF event today.

more to come ...