Best Case Red Blue Wave Perfect Storm STATEWIDE Non-Judicial GOP keeps winning streak since 1998 intact with wins of 6-8 points on average Dems win Senate seat and 2 other statewide fights as GOP holds others in close races. Dems sweep slate to end 28-year losing streak and make Texas key 2028 battleground U.S. HOUSE GOP 25-13 GOP flips 3 of 5 targeted seats on new map while holding all OF ITS current districts GOP picks up 2 of 5 targeted House seats while Dems have shot to flip one or two. GOP flips 1 targeted seat while Dems flip 3 on map drawn for 5-seat red gain TEXAS HOUSE GOP 88-62 Dems post net gain of 3 or 4 in best case scenario for GOP in huge lightning dodge Dems flip 6 to 8 seats but find fewer in reach than in last wave when they flipped 12 Dems seize majority for first time in 24 years with gain of 14 seats with shots at more TEXAS SENATE GOP 19-12 GOP takes back Tarrant seat Dem won in special vote as only change in east wing Dems hold Tarrant seat they flipped in January despite GOP vows to take it back Dems hold Tarrant seat they flipped this year on map with no other changes in 2026

GOP Could Lose Multiple Statewide Races
if Democrats Claim Texas House Majority

Capitol Inside
April 10, 2026

Austin State Rep. Vikki Goodwin - the favorite in a Democratic runoff for Texas Senate president - argued on Friday that Democrats have a good chance to snap a 28-year losing streak in statewide races here if the Republican incumbent she wants to oust is right about the GOP's majority in the House being in danger.

Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick sent the Republicans' anxiety soaring on Wednesday when he warned that the ruling Texas party would have a "tough time" protecting the advantage that it's had for two dozen years in the west wing of the statehouse in Austin.

But Patrick - speaking to the Texas Public Policy Foundation's annual conference - stopped short of saying that the GOP's grip on statewide offices could be in jeopardy as well. Democrats would reclaim the House majority with a net gain of 14 seats in the November 3 general election.

"You do the math… if there are enough voters showing up to flip 14 TX House seats, then we can also elect a new Lt Gov," Goodwin said in a post this morning on X.

The Republicans here received more bad news on Friday when the nation posted the highest annual increase in the inflation rate in four decades as a consequence of President Donald Trump's war in Iran and the impact its had on record gasoline prices around the U.S. The annual inflation rate vaulted 3.3 percent after the consumer price index jumped 0.9 percent in March.

Consumer prices had gone up a record 2.9 percent in 2018 - the highest previous mark on Trump's watch - when Democrats flipped 12 Texas House districts, two state Senate seats and two congressional seats. A new CNN poll that was made public this week found the president with a 72 percent 's disapproval rate on the issue of inflation - four points more than Democrat Joe Biden's worst score on the same subject.

A record 76 percent of likely voters in the CNN/SSRS survey disapproved of Trump on the sizzling topic of gasoline prices which have soared to their highest levels ever with some California drivers paying $7 for a gallon while the price at the pump in Texas is well above $4 per gallon and rapidly approaching the $5 mark in major cities like Austin.

Gas prices soared 21.2 percent in March as a function of the warring in the Middle East where a fragile truce could be on the verge of unraveling in the midst of Israeli air strikes on Lebanon and Trump's dismal assessment today of the Iranians' progress in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The president said Iran was doing "a very poor job" of ensuring passage for oil tankers there.

Trump has had Republicans in Texas and beyond pushing panic buttons in the past week with wild and rambling rants on Truth Social media and a promise on Easter Sunday to wipe out the entire civilization of Iran if its new leaders fail to meet his demands. The president is waging a war against some the MAGA base's most prominent members including Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly and former Georgia congressional member Marjorie Taylor Greene.

It should be abundantly clear to Republicans in the Lone Star State and other places that Trump isn't worried about their fate at the ballot box this fall and even prompted speculation among some on whether the president is actually trying to hurt their chances in the midterm election later this year.

Trump's popularity has cratered in the second year of his second term - falling below 40 percent in half the polls that have been conducted in the past month.

Goodwin the Capitol City legislator who expects to square off with Patrick this fall made a brief but compelling case today on social media on why the GOP monopoly in statewide contests could be in serious peril if the party's hold on the House could be about to end. Goodwin will get a shot at the powerful lieutenant governor in November if she beats primary rival Marcos Velez as she expects to do in a runoff election on May 26. Goodwin led Velez by 17 points in the March primary election with 48 percent of the vote.

The Capitol Inside crystal ball sees three possible outcomes for the general election in Texas in 2026 - a blue wave in a league with the 2018 vote here when Democrats flipped 12 state House seats, two in the Senate and two congressional districts. Democrat Beto O'Rourke came within less than 3 percentage points of knocking off U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in the race at the top of the Texas ballot that year. That's the best singular finish for a Democrat in a Texas statewide contest since 1994 when they won for the last time at that level.

But the tentative Texas forecast here for the fall has the Democrats with a better chance of winning one or more statewide races than the majority in the Texas Legislature's lower chamber that Patrick fears to be at risk. While the conditions have never been more ripe for a perfect storm in Texas than they are now, the House doesn't have as many seats in reach for the minority party as it did in the first midterm election on Trump's watch eight years ago.

If the Democrats fare well enough to pick up six to eight Texas House seats this fall, a James Talarico victory in the U.S. Senate race could be a decent bet. If Patrick fears come true on the state House battlefield, the entire GOP statewide slate could be in trouble more than anyone seems to realize now.

more to come ...