Greg Abbott vs, Ken Paxton March 5 Primary Wins, Losses & Runoffs

	Challenger Wins Hickland, Holt, LaHood, Olcott, Shofner Challenger Record 5-2-3 Incumbent Record 22-2-3 Open Races Record 3-0-3 Incumbent Runoffs Kerwin, Schoolcraft, Spencer, Klick, Stucky, Frazier		Challenger Wins Hickland, Holt, LaHood, Little, Luther, Money, Morgan, Olcott Challenger Record 8-21-7 Incumbent Record 3-1-0 Open Races Record 3-1-1 Incumbent Runoffs Covey, Hopper, Kerwin, Lowe, Pierson, Richardson, Schoolcraft
Greg Abbott	Record 30-4-9		Record 14-23-8	Ken Paxton

Troxclair and Slawson Top Rankings
for House Speaker Amid Phelan Woes

Capitol Inside
March 6, 2024

Texas House Speaker Race Rankings 2025 1 Ellen Troxclair R-Lakeway 2 Shelby Slawson R-Stephenville 3 Cody Harris R-Palestine 4 Todd Hunter R-Corpus Christi 5 Tom Craddick R-Midland 6 Trent Ashby R-Lufkin 7 Brad Buckley R-Salado 8 Charlie Geren R-Fort Worth 9 Dustin Burrows R-Lubbock 10 Jared Patterson R-Frisco

Rookie Republican State Rep. Ellen Troxclair of Lakeway could have a shot to lead the Texas House next year despite a lack of experience after emerging in the past month as the apple of Governor Greg Abbott's eye as far as incumbents are concerned en route to a primary election win that wasn't sealed until early Wednesday morning.

With Speaker Dade Phelan running as a decided underdog in a spring runoff with first-round leader David Covey, the leadership election effectively began late Tuesday night when it became apparent that the top job in the House would be up for grabs regardless of the outcome of overtime in House District 21.

The first Capitol Inside rankings for a new Texas House speaker race has Troxclair in the crowning spot with GOP State Rep. Shelby Slawson of Stephenville as a close second after running unopposed in the first round. Slawson, who's only in her second term, is the more accomplished of the two in the legislative arena as the House sponsor of the Texas abortion ban as a freshman in 2021.

Troxclair defeated former House Republican Kyle Biedermann of Frederickburg with 52 percent of the vote in the primary election in Tuesday. Biedermann had been a darling of the far right when he served in the House. Slawson had a clear path in round one in her bid for a third term in the west wing.

The elevation of the two women to the pinnacle of the speaker rankings might seem peculiar or out of touch for a House that's been run by older white men for the most part for more than two decades of Republican rule. Slawson and Troxclair are 46 and 39 years old respectively.

Troxclair tops the list based to a large degree on the fact that Abbott may feel like he won the right to select the lower chamber's new leader after the success that he had in the primary election with a school choice retaliation crusade that knocked off five incumbents who were critical to Phelan's survival hopes. The governor expects challengers he's backing in three other fights with targeted House Republicans to emerge victorious in a runoff election with an electorate that will be considerably more conservative based on voting trends in the GOP era.

Abbott posted a 6-3 record in round one with the challengers he supported for the primary vote in Hillary Hickland of Belton, Marc LaHood of San Antonio, Joanne Shofner of Nacogdoches, Janis Holt of Silsbee, Mike Olcott of Aledo and Brent Money of Greenville. Hickland unseated State Rep. Hugh Shine of Temple with 53 percent of the vote in a Central Texas contest while LaHood and Holt beat State Reps. Steve Allison in the Alamo City and Ernest Bailes of Shepherd with 53 percent as well. Olcott turned in a more dominant showing when he ousted State Rep. Glenn Rogers of Graford with 63 percent of the primary vote in a district that's a rare rural-suburban hybrid.

Money was the only member of that particular group who Abbott actually ignored after an endorsement before a special election runoff that he lost in January. Abbott heaped praise on State Rep. Jill Dutton of Ben Wheeler immediately after the runoff election as though he thought she'd be a cinch in the primary that Money ended up winning with 57 percent of the vote.

But Abbott lost a pair of allies in GOP State Reps. Kronda Thimesch of Lewisville and Jacey Jetton of Sugar Land in races that Mitch Little and Matt Morgan won in the Tuesday election. The governor could see three more incumbents that he supports fall victim to challengers in runoffs in districts where State Reps. Lynn Stucky of Sanger, Frederick Frazier of McKinney and Stephanie Klick of Fort Worth will be dueling challengers in the second round.

Abbott could go 8-2 in House districts where he targeted incumbents as payback for their opposition to school vouchers during a special session fall. Two of Abbott's targets - State Reps. Drew Darby of San Angelo and Stan Lambert of Abilene - staved off challengers who the governor backed.

A new speaker's race couldn't be more wide open at the outset than the one that's getting off the ground today behind the scenes where it could stay until Phelan's fate is determined in OT. State Rep. Cody Harris of Palestine has been touted as speaker material by the chamber's most recent previous leader in Republican Dennis Bonnen.

While Harris is rated third in the initial speaker race rankings for 2025, his close ties to Bonnen and Phelan could be an albatross in a leadership contest. That might change with a nod from Abbott. State Rep. Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi ranks fourth here today as the House's most effective, talented and intelligent Republican in his current role as the State Affairs Committee chairman. But Hunter might not be as easy for outside influences like the governor to control.

Former Speaker Tom Craddick of Midland is fifth in the leadership race rankings as the Legislature's longest-serving member. Craddick led the chamber for six years before Republican Joe Straus claimed the post in 2009.

Troxclair received more help from Abbott for the primary than any of the other House Republicans who he supported in re-election races with primary foes. Abbott contributed $285,000 to Troxclair in the past two months alone - and he appeared with her at multiple functions in the weeks before the vote. Abbott donated $166,000 to Jetton, $115,000 to Thimesch and $112,000 to Stucky.

more to come ...