AI Forecasts Talarico, Huffines and Sheets
Winning and Cornyn and Paxton Eye Runoff
Capitol Inside
March 3, 2026
Democrat James Talarico seized the lead in the U.S. Senate race on Tuesday night when U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton were poised for a runoff across the aisle while a pair of incumbent Republican statewide leaders were in danger of losing jobs in the Texas primary election.
But after several AI data analysis sites projected that Talarico would win 53 percent or 54 percent of the Democratic primary vote in the Senate contest, the Secretary of State's site showed the Austin representative and Crockett dead even with 49.39 percent of the vote apiece two hours after the polls close in most locations around the state.
Talarico was up on Crockett by 11 votes out of nearly 892,000 that were cast at the time.
Republican Don Huffines appeared on track for an outright win in a race for the job that Comptroller Kelly Hancock had for less than a year and was fighting to keep with Governor Greg Abbott attempting to prop him up by pouring more than $3 million into his campaign in the final month of the contest. Huffines, a former state senator, had 60 percent of the vote with close to half the votes that were cast in the GOP primary election already counted. Hancock was a distant second with 22 percent while Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick had 15 percent.
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller fell behind in the early vote and trailed Nate Sheets by nearly 10 points despite an endorsement that the incumbent scored from President Donald Trump during the weekend. Trump had pitched his support behind Huffines as well for the comptroller's race after attending a rally for Texas Republicans in Corpus Christi on Friday. .
U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Houston appeared to be going down in a fight with State Rep. Steve Toth of Conroe in the Congressional District 2 that President Donald Trump dove into last week with an endorsement for the challenger. Toth had almost 58 percent of the vote - according to the data analysis site VoteHub - with two-thirds of the ballots that were cast in CD 2 already counted.
The Congressional District 23 race appeared destined for a runoff in May with U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales of San Antonio leading Brandon Herrera in a battle that the incumbent look to be fumbling away with a scandal that dogged his campaign in the closing weeks. But Gonzales was up on Herrera by 6 points at 46 percent as the returns trickled in.
State Senator Mayes Middleton and U.S. Rep. Chip Roy appeared headed to a spring runoff in an open race for Texas attorney general with 43 percent and 30 percent of the vote respectively. Former Tarrant County GOP chair Bo French was leading Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright in a first-round fight that appeared on track for overtime as well.
Dennis "Goose" Geesaman of Flatonia was on his way to the GOP nomination in Texas House District 85 where the incumbent State Rep. Stan Kitzman of Pattison was trailing him by nearly 20 points. But another House Republican who Speaker Dustin Burrows viewed as a major priority in round one - State Rep. Angelia Orr of Itasca - had over 60 percent of the vote in a primary fight in House District 13 with Kat Wall, who spent a record sum of money on the bid there.
GOP State Rep. Terri Leo-Wilson of Galveston was en route to a victory over Nathan Watkins of Baytown in a first-round fight where the challenger amassed a much larger war chest for the race in House District 23.
Republican State Rep. Trent Ashby of Lufkin was on track to beat Rhonda Ward in the primary in an open race for the Texas Senate District 3 seat.
But the spotlight has been glued to the U.S. Senate primary - the most expensive of its kind in the history of the United States. Cornyn, who'd trailed Paxton in most of the polls on the race, had 44 percent compared to 39 for Paxton with 64 percent of the ballots tallied.
more to come ...
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