Talarico's Success in Appeal for GOP Votes
Could Be Deadly for Cornyn in Close OT Vote
Texas Senate Runoff Polls
Capitol Inside
May 11, 2026
U.S. Senator John Cornyn could lose to James Talarico before he ever gets a shot at him if tens of thousands of relatively moderate Texas Republicans are barred from the GOP runoff polls because they broke ranks to back the state representative from Austin in the Democratic primary in the U.S. Senate race.
Texas Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright could be an indirect Talarico victim in overtime this month as well as the consensus establishment choice in a runoff duel with far-right darling Bo French in the race for one of three seats on the board that regulates oil and gas.
But Attorney General Ken Paxton would be the major beneficiary if the Senate race is close at the finish line and the Republicans who would have supported Cornyn if they hadn't ventured into the opposing party primary are the ultimate difference in the competition for the GOP nomination in the contest that's crowning the Texas ballot this year.
Talarico - a state representative from Austin - has honed his campaign on a bid for support from independents and Republicans who are fed up President Donald Trump and the chaos and division that have marked his second term up to now. Talarico's attempt to build a broader base in a state where Democrats haven't won statewide in 32 years has featured an emphasis on his work as an ordained Presbyterian minister who's been a vocal foe of Christian nationalism.
The Talarico push for votes across the aisle appeared to be evident to some degree when a total of 115,516 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary in the Senate fight than the number who voted in the governor's race from which Gina Hinojosa emerged as the nominee from a crowded field with only token opposition.
The Democrats logged 152,277 mores votes in the first round in the Senate race than the combined count in the Republican primary in that particular contest two months ago. According to the Secretary of State's office, a total of 2,319,187 votes were cast in the Democratic primary in the Senate race that Talarico won when he beat U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett by more than 6 points with almost 53 percent of the vote. The GOP recorded 2,166,910 votes for eight candidates on March 3 in the Texas Senate race that Cornyn led with 42 percent of the primary vote compared to 40.5 percent for Paxton.
The AG scored 878,564 votes in round one while the longtime Senate incumbent garnered 910,383. Cornyn, Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt received 2,082,197 combined in the initial election as the GOP three candidates that weren't political unknowns. Talarico and Crockett won 2,288,312 combined in the first round of the 2026 midterms.
It's conceivable that disgruntled Republicans and independents who would have backed Cornyn accounted for 10 percent of the Talarico total or even more if his attempt to bridge the deepest and widest partisan divide in modern U.S. history is resonating the way he's hoped.
Texas does not require voters to register with a specific party like they do in some states. But state law here forbids voters from casting ballots in a primary runoff if they participated in the other major party's nominating election earlier in the year.
Cross-party voting in the 2026 primary election in Texas was not as high as it had been at times in the past. The Democrats set the all-time record in that regard in 2008 when almost 2.9 million votes were cast in the race for president between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton had still been competitive. Less than 1.4 million Texans turned out to vote in the GOP primary election that year when John McCain had the nomination already wrapped up.
Some Republicans wanted the chance to be part of history with votes for the candidate who had the opportunity to be the country's first Black president. But the lion's share of GOP voters who crossed over for the 2008 primary backed Clinton in an attempt to derail Obama as the Democrat who Republicans feared more at the time. And few if any of the Republicans who broke ranks for the rare chance to participate in a presidential primary that was still up for grabs voted for the Democrats' candidates again in the fall that year.
Talarico's first-round support among GOP voters may have been higher if the Republicans didn't have their most competitive Senate primary ever under way with Paxton as the betting favorite in OT over the incumbent who's held the job for two dozen years. The prediction market Kalshi increased Paxton's odds for a runoff victory to 62 percent on Monday - a boost of 3 points from the forecast there on Friday before Trump promised again that an endorsement in the Texas race would be forthcoming.
The overriding theme of Cornyn's campaign has been that he's the only Republican who can beat Talarico in the fall. But recent polling has shown with Talarico with an edge over both of his potential GOP foes - with Cornyn as the tougher competition in a general election than an AG who's been embroiled in controversies for years.
more to come ...
|
GOP RUNOFF |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
CORNYN |
PAXTON |
LEADER |
|
5/03-05 |
1,810 LV |
36% |
47% |
Paxton +11 |
|
5/02-05 |
800 LV |
47% |
46% |
Cornyn +1 |
|
4/28-5/1 |
1,200 LV |
45% |
48% |
Paxton +3 |
|
4/06-07 |
1,225 LV |
40% |
48% |
Paxton +8 |
|
4/06-09 |
800 LV |
44% |
43% |
Cornyn +1 |
|
4/11-14 |
1,143 LV |
44% |
43% |
Cornyn +1 |
|
3/19-23 |
600 LV |
42% |
47% |
Paxton +5 |
|
3/21-23 |
1,218 LV |
41% |
47% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/17-19 |
807 LV |
39% |
42% |
Paxton +3 |
|
3/12-17 |
900 LV |
37% |
53% |
Paxton +16 |
|
3/09-12 |
800 LV |
45% |
45% |
Even |
|
3/07-08 |
781 LV |
41% |
49% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/05-06 |
565 LV |
42% |
45% |
Paxton +3 |
Average |
|
|
|
|
Paxton +4.7 |
|
| 
