Beto Has Better Shot at President
than Governor Based on LV Odds
Capitol Inside
November 15, 2021
Beto O'Rourke launched a bid to oust Governor Greg Abbott on Monday with odds in Las Vegas that were 20 times higher than the incumbent Republican has for a victory in the 2024 presidential competition.
O'Rourke was a substantial underdog in the governor's race nonetheless as a candidate who's entry into the ring had been widely expected as the Democrat's most well known product in Texas for the marquee fight here in 2022.
Democrats are hoping that O'Rourke can recapture the lightning in a bottle that he had in a high-dollar quest to unseat U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 in a race the incumbent began as a prohibitive favorite and won by less than 3 percentage points. Texas Democrats won't want the version of O'Rourke that ran for president with lackluster results compared to the high expectations that he had at the outset in the afterglow of the near-miss with Cruz.
The sports book Bovada had Abbott as a solid favorite tonight at -300 in his bid for a third term as the state's top leader in 2022. O'Rourke was a distant second at +500 while actor Matthew McConaughey was fairly close behind at +600. A bet of $100 on Abbott would rake in $33.33 in winnings if he prevails in the re-election race. The same amount would pay $500 for a victory by O'Rourke at the polls next year.
The prospects for O'Rourke's return to the battlefield have received mixed reviews among the party faithful - with some fearing that progressive positions that he took in the presidential primary contest in 2020 make him more vulnerable to attacks from Republicans in Texas. But O'Rourke appears to be the Democrats' only really viable alternative barring the unforeseen emergence of McConaughey as a serious contender who decided to run in the Democratic primary election on March 1.
O'Rourke is a better bet for president than Abbott in the early goings with odds in Vegas at +6600 - a considerable improvement over the governor's at +10000 for a win at the top of the national ticket three years from now. But O'Rourke is listed at +10000 in the odds for the Democratic nomination in the 2024 White House race. At +5000 to be the GOP nominee, Abbott's odds are twice as good in the primary than the general election in the presidential sweepstakes in 2024.
A poll that Rice University conducted for the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation showed Abbott with a mere lead of 3 points in a hypothetical clash with O'Rourke in the general election next year. McConaughey was favored by only 9 percent when included a potential option in the governor's race.
Abbott was up on O'Rourke by 5 points in a poll that the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler conducted here in September. McConaughey hasn't appeared to be serious about a campaign for governor despite substantial hype and fanfare that he's generated for a book tour with the teasing on a possible political bid.
