Historic Swings to Red in White House Race
Could Put Targets on Two Dem Border Seats
Capitol Inside
March 22, 2021
Texas House District 31 appeared to be the same old Democratic stronghold on election night in November when State Rep. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City claimed a 10th term in the Capitol's west wing with more than 58 percent of the vote in a duel with a Republican challenger.
But the veteran lawmaker might have done a double-take when he discovered that Donald Trump won HD 31 last fall by 13.2 percentage points after losing there by 13.2 points in 2016 in his battle with Democrat Hillary Clinton in the presidential competition that year.
Freshman Democratic State Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass may have been just as surprised to learn the President Joe Biden lost to Trump by almost eight points in House District 74 where Clinton had won by 17 points just four years earlier.
The border districts that Guillen and Morales represent could be prime new targets for the GOP in 2022 in light of the dramatic and unprecedented swings from blue to red at the top of the ticket last fall.
The Republicans at the statehouse in Austin may need some innovative artistry in redistricting and voter restriction efforts this year if they hope to have a chance to reclaim some of 11 House districts that Democrats wrestled away from the GOP in 2018 and another seat they flipped last year.
Based on the Texas Legislative Council's new analysis of the 2020 vote, Biden defeated Trump by double-digit margins in nine of eleven districts that second-term House Democrats successfully defended last fall after flipping seats in the blue wave election three years ago. But the Democrats who won House seats in 2018 prevailed by substantially smaller margins than Biden did in their districts - a sign of the effect that the Republicans' elimination of straight ticket voting had on down-ballot contests last year.
The unforeseen boost in Trump's numbers up and down the Mexican border could tempt the GOP to make House races higher priorities there with the districts where Morales and Guillen are based as the two most likely battlefields on paper in a part of the state that had been as heavily Democratic as it is Hispanic until now.
Two of the most dramatic shifts took place in Starr County where Guillen is a resident and in Maverick County where Morales is based. Biden received 52 percent of the vote in Starr County - a 27 percent plunge from Clinton's score there of 79 percent in 2016. Clinton claimed 77 percent of the vote in Maverick County before Biden won 54 percent there last fall.
Val Verde County - the second largest of a dozen counties in HD 74 - gave Trump 54 percent in 2020 after 51 percent of the voters there backed Clinton four years ago. The border town of Del Rio is the Val Verde County seat.
Morales' home base of Eagle Pass in Maverick County has had a higher rate of coronavirus cases than any other metro in the nation - according to the New York Times COVID-19 research analysts. Maverick and Val Verde counties are third and sixth in the U.S. respectively in the cumulative count of covid cases per capita. The two border counties have had some of the highest fatality rates in the country as well. A majority of the voters in Morales' district didn't hold the pandemic's devastating effects in their area against Trump based on the incredible swing of nearly two dozen points in his favor there.
Guillen's district has more of a dual personality with Atascosa County at the northern end just south of the San Antonio area. Atascosa voted 66 percent for Trump - a 3 point improvement over 2016. But Atascosa County had a 31 percent boost in total turnout compared to Trump's first bid - and that had an exponential effect. Biden's anemic performance in Starr County - the only border county in HD 31 - contributed to the swing.
State Reps. Jon Rosenthal of Houston and Erin Zwiener of Driftwood would be the two most vulnerable Democrats from the rookie class in the House two years ago in districts where Biden beat Trump by about 5 points and 7 points respectively. Zwiener staved off a challenge from Republican Carrie Isaac in 2020 with a one point win in House District 45 while Rosenthal edged GOP nominee Justin Ray by 300 votes by almost 75,000 that were cast in House District 135.
Biden beat Trump by more than 10 points in the districts where Democratic State Reps. Vicki Goodwin of Austin, Michelle Beckley of Carrollton, James Talarico of Round Rock and Rhetta Bowers of Rowlett fended off GOP challengers with victories between 1 point and 4 points after turning seats blue in 2018.
Biden trounced Trump by almost 23 points in House District 134 where rookie Democratic State Rep. Ann Johnson of Houston unseated a veteran incumbent for the GOP in 2020. Johnson beat Sarah Davis by less than five points.
more to come ... |
